APS4

Advanced Prediction and Risk Analysis for Microsoft Project Schedules

Develop key insights prior to project execution by understanding your project's most accurate forecast method and its riskiest activities and improve control efficiency by defining top-down forecast and bottom-up risk action thresholds.

APS4 SCHEDULE SIMULATION

Forecast

Your project undergoes a Monte Carlo Simulation to identify its most accurate time/cost EVM forecast method.

Risk

Your project undergoes a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the impact of activity risk and uncertainty.

Action Thresholds

Your project's Top-Down Forecast and Bottom-Up Risk simulation information is used to define action thresholds.

Develop forecast and risk insights prior to execution

Empowering project organisations and professionals with advanced analytic capabilities and project intelligence to make better informed decisions and achieve project delivery success.

Check out our work

Take a peek inside our APS4 Schedule Simulation world

Schedule a demonstration

The #1 Schedule Simulation Service for Project Organisations and Professionals.

What Our Customers Have to Say

APS4 SCHEDULE SIMULATION

For Project Professionals

Get the management recognition you deserve by identifying your project's most accurate time/cost forecast method and the riskiest activities that require close tracking and monitoring.

For Project Organisations

Exceed client expectations and grow your business with accurate forecasts that predict your projects final project time/cost outcome and reporting your project's changing risk profile over time.

Predict the impact of your schedule’s uncertainty & risk to project outcomes.

Deliverables

  • EVM Forecast Study Report
  • Schedule Risk Analysis Report
  • EVM/SRA Execution Thresholds

Summary

  • Your Microsoft Project schedule's execution is simulated to explore its many different possible outcomes and to identify the most important factors driving your risk so you can plan strategies and resources accordingly. Similarly, schedule execution is simulated to evaluate your project’s most accurate forecasting method. Finally, top-down and bottom-up action thresholds are designed, which if triggered generate an early warning signal to take action to recover troubled projects.

Overcome PERT limitations with a Schedule Risk Analysis and Forecast Accuracy Study

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) assumes activities, not on the critical path, can be ignored. In reality, projects may have multiple critical paths instead of a single unique critical path. Moreover, in a stochastic setting, every noncritical path has the potential to become critical. Finally, PERT assumes activity durations are independent random variables when, in reality, they can be dependent. These strict assumptions lead to planning, execution and control inaccuracies.

A Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) overcomes PERT limitations by defining activity uncertainty ranges and running a Monte-Carlo simulation to simulate all possible project execution scenarios. Four activity measures refine the black and white view of the critical path: the criticality index, the sensitivity index, the cruciality index and the schedule sensitivity index. These activity sensitivity measures guide the project risk tracking phase, known as bottom-up project tracking.

A Forecast Accuracy Study overcomes EVM forecast method limitations by reusing activity uncertainty ranges and running a Monte-Carlo simulation to simulate all possible project execution scenarios. The Estimate at Completion (EAC) time and cost forecasting method that most accurately predicts the projects finish time and cost respectively is selected. These forecast measures guide the project EVM tracking phase, known as top-down project tracking.

Experience APS4: Schedule Simulation from pminsight!

Also, we have additional schedule simulationmethods