Advanced Prediction and Risk Analysis for Microsoft Project Schedules
Develop key insights prior to project execution by understanding your project's most accurate forecast method and its riskiest activities and improve control efficiency by defining top-down forecast and bottom-up risk action thresholds.
APS4 SCHEDULE SIMULATION
Develop forecast and risk insights prior to execution
Empowering project organisations and professionals with advanced analytic capabilities and project intelligence to make better informed decisions and achieve project delivery success.
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APS4 SCHEDULE SIMULATION
Predict the impact of your schedule’s uncertainty & risk to project outcomes.
Overcome PERT limitations with a Schedule Risk Analysis and Forecast Accuracy Study
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) assumes activities, not on the critical path, can be ignored. In reality, projects may have multiple critical paths instead of a single unique critical path. Moreover, in a stochastic setting, every noncritical path has the potential to become critical. Finally, PERT assumes activity durations are independent random variables when, in reality, they can be dependent. These strict assumptions lead to planning, execution and control inaccuracies.
A Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) overcomes PERT limitations by defining activity uncertainty ranges and running a Monte-Carlo simulation to simulate all possible project execution scenarios. Four activity measures refine the black and white view of the critical path: the criticality index, the sensitivity index, the cruciality index and the schedule sensitivity index. These activity sensitivity measures guide the project risk tracking phase, known as bottom-up project tracking.
A Forecast Accuracy Study overcomes EVM forecast method limitations by reusing activity uncertainty ranges and running a Monte-Carlo simulation to simulate all possible project execution scenarios. The Estimate at Completion (EAC) time and cost forecasting method that most accurately predicts the projects finish time and cost respectively is selected. These forecast measures guide the project EVM tracking phase, known as top-down project tracking.
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